The Minns government wants 377,000 new homes by 2029 — a flood-risk test is about to reveal how far it will go
The New South Wales government has made NSW housing supply its defining policy mission. Under the national housing accord, NSW has committed to delivering 377,000 new dwellings by 2029. To get there faster, the Minns government has dramatically expanded a planning pathway that lets large developments bypass local council approval entirely.
But a proposed seniors housing development in Sydney’s inner west is now testing the limits of that approach. Government agencies have warned the site sits in one of the most flood-prone locations in the area. How the planning minister handles it will signal just how far the state will push its housing targets — and what trade-offs buyers and communities should expect along the way.
The housing target
Australia has a housing shortage, and NSW sits at the sharp end of it. Decades of constrained supply have left a persistent deficit of affordable homes across the state, particularly in capital cities. The national housing accord sets a national target of 1.2 million new homes by 2029. NSW must contribute 377,000 of those — roughly one in three of all new homes needed across the country.
The gap between supply and demand has driven prices sharply higher. New apartments are increasingly built for wealthy buyers rather than first home buyers, as developers respond to high construction costs by targeting the premium end of the market. Getting more housing approved and built faster is one of the most direct levers the government can pull.
That urgency is reshaping how the planning system operates. The goal is clear: more homes, faster. But the methods being used to achieve it are drawing scrutiny.
The fast-track pathway
The state significant development (SSD) pathway has existed in NSW since 2005. It allows projects worth more than $30 million — or those considered regionally significant or environmentally complex — to bypass local council approval and be assessed directly by the state planning minister. Under the Minns government, the number of projects using this pathway has grown sharply. There are now more than 1,000 SSD applications awaiting determination across the state.
For housing supply, faster planning is broadly positive. Faster approvals reduce holding costs for developers. That saving should, in theory, flow through to lower final prices for buyers. Anything that cuts the time and cost of getting homes built has the potential to ease affordability pressures over time.
But speed also has a cost. Community and environmental concerns may receive less scrutiny than they would through a standard council assessment process. The Forest Lodge case illustrates exactly what that tension looks like in practice.
The Forest Lodge case
A proposed development at Junction Street in Forest Lodge, inner west Sydney, has become a flashpoint for the SSD pathway. The proposal — a 12-bed aged care facility and 71 independent living units, estimated at $80 million — has attracted strong objections from three separate government bodies.
The NSW State Emergency Services says the site has limited evacuation opportunities and that the development would significantly increase the population and vulnerability of people living in a flood-prone location. The state’s Conservation Programs, Heritage and Regulation group has advised the department that the site is the most highly flood-constrained in the area, and that design measures cannot adequately mitigate the hazard. The City of Sydney council adds that the developer is relying on rainfall modelling from 1987 — outdated data that has been superseded by 2019 flood risk guidelines.
The site lies in a basin along a tributary of Johnstons Creek. During major flood events, parts of the area become inaccessible by vehicle. The developer has proposed a shelter-in-place strategy for extreme events, but emergency services have rejected that approach as unsuitable for a seniors living development.
What buyers should know
For property buyers, the broader NSW housing push is positive news. More supply — particularly medium-density housing in middle-ring suburbs — helps ease upward pressure on prices. Faster approvals, when applied well, can bring genuinely affordable homes to market sooner.
But the Forest Lodge controversy is a reminder that due diligence on individual properties matters enormously. Flood risk affects your insurance premiums, your resale value and, most importantly, the safety of the people living there. Before buying in any inner-city area near waterways or low-lying land, check the local council’s flood mapping tool and ask the agent for the property’s insurance history. Properties in flood-constrained areas can face sharply higher insurance costs or even difficulty getting cover at all.
If you are looking at new or off-the-plan apartments in NSW, it is worth checking whether your target suburb has active SSD applications nearby. New fast-track approvals can bring significant supply into an area quickly, which affects local demand and resale values. Use our stamp duty calculator to understand your upfront purchase costs in NSW. And if you want to understand how a new or near-new property fits your borrowing capacity, talk to our team for a free assessment.
Common questions
Q: What is the state significant development pathway in NSW?
The SSD pathway allows large or complex developments — generally valued above $30 million — to bypass local council approval and be assessed directly by the NSW planning minister. The Minns government has expanded its use significantly as part of efforts to hit NSW’s target of 377,000 new homes by 2029.
Q: How does flood risk affect my property purchase?
Flood risk can increase your insurance premiums substantially, and some properties in high-risk areas are difficult or costly to insure. It can also affect resale value and your ability to refinance if flood classifications change. Always check council flood maps and the property’s insurance history before you buy.
Q: Will faster housing approvals lower property prices in NSW?
More supply should ease price growth over time, but the impact depends on where new homes are built and at what price point. Many new NSW developments are targeting the premium end of the market, so entry-level buyers may not benefit directly from increased approvals in the near term.