What the fuel crisis reveals about the hidden price of buying in transport-poor suburbs.
Skyrocketing petrol prices, driven by conflict in the Middle East, are hitting outer suburban Australians the hardest. In areas like Willmot near Mount Druitt in western Sydney, residents describe being pushed to a tipping point. One local charity received eighteen requests for emergency fuel assistance in just two weeks. Normally, that kind of demand takes an entire year to build up.
For home buyers, this crisis raises a question worth sitting with. When you choose where to buy and borrow, have you fully accounted for transport costs? Understanding how rising oil prices affect your home loan budget starts with understanding the true ongoing cost of where you live.
The transport gap
Vast stretches of Australian suburbia were built on one assumption: every household owns a car. Researchers call areas where public transport is inadequate or nonexistent “public transport deserts”. They cover much of outer western Sydney, Melbourne’s outer west and Brisbane’s northern fringes.
In Willmot, a suburb near Mount Druitt, the nearest employment hub at Marsden Park is a fifteen minute drive away. By bus, the journey takes more than an hour and a half, requiring one or two connections along the way. A University of Sydney study found that up to one quarter of bus services in the outer Mount Druitt area did not arrive on time in 2024. Those services were also five times more likely to be cancelled than the Sydney average.
When the prime minister told Australians to leave their cars at home and take public transport to ease the fuel crisis, researchers were quick to point out that the advice simply does not apply to people in these suburbs. For them, driving is not a choice. It is a necessity.
The real cost of location
Every property buyer focuses on the purchase price and the home loan repayments. But the ongoing running costs of a property matter just as much, and location drives those costs significantly.
If you live somewhere that requires one or two cars, long daily commutes and regular fuel stops, that is money leaving your household budget every single week. Researchers at RMIT University have spent decades tracking how outer suburban households are more exposed to both fuel shocks and interest rate rises compared with inner-city residents who have reliable access to public transport.
When you estimate your home loan repayments, build in a realistic estimate of weekly transport costs as well. Include fuel, registration, insurance and maintenance for the number of vehicles your household will need. That fuller picture gives you a much more accurate sense of what homeownership will actually cost in that location, month to month.
Buying in an outer suburb to save on the purchase price can make excellent sense. But if the ongoing transport costs eat into those savings, the long-term financial maths may not work the way you expect.
What lenders assess
Lenders assess your borrowing capacity based on your income, your existing debts and your regular living expenses. Transport costs feed directly into that calculation.
If fuel prices stay high or your personal circumstances change, the cost of running one or two cars can put serious pressure on a household budget. This is one reason your borrowing power may have declined in recent years. The overall cost of living has risen sharply, and responsible lenders factor these higher living costs into how much they are willing to lend.
A household that spends $400 or more per week on transport is a meaningfully different financial proposition to a household that spends $100. Lenders and mortgage brokers who dig into your actual lifestyle costs will see this distinction, and it influences what you can comfortably borrow.
If you are comparing properties in different locations, it is worth having a candid conversation with your broker about the transport cost assumptions built into each scenario.
Before you buy
Before committing to a suburb, work through these questions:
If you want a clear view of what you can realistically afford after all costs are considered, take the time to check your borrowing power with a realistic budget that includes transport. The number may surprise you in either direction.
Common questions
Q: Should I avoid buying in outer suburbs because of high fuel costs?
Not necessarily. Outer suburbs can offer excellent value and genuine lifestyle benefits. The key is to run the full numbers before you commit. Factor transport costs alongside your home loan repayments and other ownership expenses. If the total is manageable and the area has strong future infrastructure investment or nearby employment, buying there can still be a sound decision.
Q: Will petrol prices stay high?
Nobody can predict fuel prices with certainty. They depend on global events, currency movements and government policy. A good approach is to stress-test your budget against a range of scenarios, including sustained high fuel costs. If your home loan remains comfortably serviceable in that scenario, you are in a stronger position regardless of what happens to the price at the pump.
Q: Can a mortgage broker help me work out true affordability for a specific suburb?
Yes. A good broker will help you build a realistic budget that includes transport, insurance, council rates and other ongoing costs alongside your home loan repayments. That full picture gives you a much clearer sense of whether a particular property in a particular suburb genuinely fits your financial situation over the long term.